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Y-DNA Test Results and Lineages for a Haplogroup I2b1a1 FERGUSON Family
Below is my analysis of the Y-DNA test results for a Haplogroup I2b1a1 FERGUSON family in response to a query on the GENEALOGY-DNA mailing list.  They are members of the "1.5.2.1- M223>M284>L126,L137,L369 (IslesSc Group 1/I2b1a1)" subgroup at the I2-M223 Project.  Data and lineages are from the Fergus(s)on DNA Project. 
For an explanation of how I analyze Y-DNA test results, please see my page on "Signature Markers."
To view more of the page without scrolling, temporarily reduce the text size or page size in your browser.  Red labels indicate markers that typically mutate more frequently than those labeled in black.  (Empty cells that are darkened indicate tests not ordered.)  Keywords for search engines: genetic genealogy.

GD = Genetic Distance, the number of mutation events separating two haplotypes.
To view lineages, please scroll to the right.
GD
(cumulative)		 Name   Panel 1 — Standard Markers 1-12   Panel 2 — Standard Markers 13-25   Panel 3 — Standard Markers 26-37   Panel 4 — Standard Markers 38-67   Known Lineage
STR PP3 PP5 MP6 MP7 MP8
12 25 37 67 3
9
3		 3
9
0		 19
/
3
9
4		 3
9
1		 a
|
3
8
5		 b
|
3
8
5		 4
2
6		 3
8
8		 4
3
9		 i
|
3
8
9		 3
9
2		 ii
|
3
8
9		 4
5
8		 a
|
4
5
9		 b
|
4
5
9		 4
5
5		 4
5
4		 4
4
7		 4
3
7		 4
4
8		 4
4
9		 a
|
4
6
4		 b
|
4
6
4		 c
|
4
6
4		 d
|
4
6
4		 4
6
0		 H4
|
G
A
T
A		 IIa
|
Y
C
A		 IIb
|
Y
C
A		 4
5
6		 6
0
7		 5
7
6		 5
7
0		 a
|
C
D
Y		 b
|
C
D
Y		 4
4
2		 4
3
8		 5
3
1		 5
7
8		 a
|
S1
3
9
5		 b
|
S1
3
9
5		 5
9
0		 5
3
7		 6
4
1		 4
7
2		 S1
4
0
6		 5
1
1		 4
2
5		 a
|
4
1
3		 b
|
4
1
3		 5
5
7		 5
9
4		 4
3
6		 4
9
0		 5
3
4		 4
5
0		 4
4
4		 4
8
1		 5
2
0		 4
4
6		 6
1
7		 5
6
8		 4
8
7		 5
7
2		 6
4
0		 4
9
2		 5
6
5
I-M223 Modals   15 23 15 10 15 15 11 13 11 13 12 29   15 8 10 11 11 25 14 20 27 11 14 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 17 18 34 38 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 11 10 8 10 9 12 21 22 15 11 12 12 13 9 14 25 20 10 13 12 13 11 12 12 11   n=714 at 37 markers; n=431 at 67 markers
I-M284 IslesSC Group 1 Modals   15 24 15 10 15 16 11 13 11 14 12 30   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 16   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 18 31 37 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 16 9 14 26 20 10 13 11 13 11 11 12 11   n=18 at 37 markers; n=15 at 67 markers
Ferguson Family Modal Values   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 20 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   n=7 at 37 markers; n=6 at 67 markers
                           
1 2 4 6 David N   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 12 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 28 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 31 35 13 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 19 9 13 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   David N.6, Thomas Lester5 (1899), Thomas Melton4 (c1872), Alfred F.3 (1838), Thomas Jr.2 (1798), Thomas Esq.1 (1760-1832) — of Washington Co., PA and Gaston Co., NC
                           
0 0 0 0 James Mark   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 20 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   James Mark9, Mark Marion8 (1913), Zebulon Vance7 (1879), William R.6 (1847), Robert Marion5 (1826), Andrew Fitzpatick4 (1800), Robert3 (1764), Andrew2 (c1724), Col. Robert1 FERGUSON (c1701-1794)
& W1: Mary FITZPATRICK
of Scotland and Lincoln Co., NC
0 0 0 1 Everett Donald   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 19 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   Everett Donald8, Pvt7, John Landon6 (1869),
0 0 0 0 Kenneth Warren   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 20 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   Kenneth Warren9, Pvt8, James Elisha7 (1897), William Zachary6, (1867), James Wiley5 (1842),
0 0 0 0 Jeffrey Brandon   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 20 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   Jeffrey Brandon9, Pvt8, Leon Eugene7 (1910), James H.C.6 (1874), Robert Lafayette5 (c1848), Robert Robin Love4 (c1802),
0 0 0 2 James David   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 14 11 12 12 20 9 14 25 21 10 13 11 14 11 11 12 11   James David8, Pvt7, Shelby Calvin6, (1895), John Greenberry5 (1868), Calvin4 (1823), John3 (1783),
0 0 1 3 Frank Lemoyne   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 18 17 30 35 12 10   11 8 15 16 8 12 10 8 10 9  0 19 21 16 11 12 12 20 9 14 24 21 10 13 11 13 11 11 12 11   Frank Lemoyne7, Pvt6, Franklin Alexander5 (1866), William Oates4 (1850), John Moses3 (1818), Thomas W.2 (1780), Col. Robert1 FERGUSON (c1701-1794)
& W2: Sarah SIMS
0 0 0   Daniel Burt   15 24 14 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 29   16 8  9 11 11 26 15 20 27 11 11 14 15   11 10 19 21 14 14 19 17 30 35 12 10                                                                 Daniel Burt7, James Luther6 (1912), William Sylvanus5 (1877), James William4 (1852), Thomas W.3 (1828),
Everyone in the family falls within the typical range of genetic distances (GD) for descendants of a single European ancestor immigrated to the United States when testing 37 or 67 markers, except David.  A genetic distance of 4 at 37 markers or 6 at 67 markers makes a common ancestor in genealogical time still possible, but if so, I would expect to find that common ancestor back in Europe because I have yet to see two individuals descended from the same U.S. immigrant with a GD greater than 3 at 67 markers.
DYS534 is a fast-moving marker, so I believe these mutations to a value of 19 happened independently and do not signify relationship between David and Everett.  As it stands, all the mutations in the seven descendants of Col. Robert appear to be "private."  We don't know what markers are modal for David's family until more members match him.
David is the only individual in the group who does not have a solid paper connection to Robert, so I think we should believe what the DNA is telling us:  that David is not descended from Robert.  In other words, apply Occam's Razor and choose the simple, most probable solution, rather than the more convoluted, improbable one, which would require too many mutations and backmutations in too few generations.
Testing more individuals and testing to more markers would help clarify the picture.  I do recommend that David and at least one of the descendants of Robert test every relevant and newly found SNP to see if they match 100%. 
     
  • The single year in parentheses is the birthyear.
  • Col. Robert married late in life to a second wife, which accounts for the considerable disparity in the birthyears of his two sons and the generations of their descendants.
  • A question has been raised about the age difference between Andrew2 and John3.  I, too, am inclined to suspect a generation may have been skipped, unless we can show that Andrew, like Col. Robert, married late in life to a younger woman.  There is no difficulty making Robert3 and John3 both sons of the younger wife as their births fall within the average span of fecudity for a woman (viz., 23 years).
What constitutes a match?
Matches in other surnames are usually mere coincidence, so please ignore them — I'll let you know when you shouldn't!
For 12 markers: 9 or less is a non-relative; for 10-12 markers, please see this table compiled by FTDNA.
For 25 markers: 21 or less is a non-relative; for 22-25 markers,
For 37 markers: 31 or less is a non-relative; for 32-37 markers,
For 67 markers: 59 or less is a non-relative; for 60-67 markers,
For 111 markers: 100 or less is a non-relative; for 101-111 markers,
For any test:  0 matching markers, please contact NASA.

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